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Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

Overview of attention for article published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences, April 2018
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • Among the highest-scoring outputs from this source (#14 of 2,654)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (94th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
11 news outlets
blogs
1 blog
policy
2 policy sources
twitter
211 tweeters
facebook
2 Facebook pages

Citations

dimensions_citation
50 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
156 Mendeley
Title
Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming
Published in
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences, April 2018
DOI 10.1098/rsta.2016.0460
Pubmed ID
Authors

Felix Pretis, Moritz Schwarz, Kevin Tang, Karsten Haustein, Myles R. Allen

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP)per capitaexhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDPper capitaapproximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions inper capitaGDP growth and national income levels is significant at thep < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 211 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 156 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 156 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 29 19%
Student > Master 26 17%
Student > Ph. D. Student 25 16%
Professor 11 7%
Student > Bachelor 10 6%
Other 23 15%
Unknown 32 21%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Environmental Science 28 18%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 20 13%
Economics, Econometrics and Finance 18 12%
Social Sciences 12 8%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 9 6%
Other 28 18%
Unknown 41 26%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 255. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 21 April 2021.
All research outputs
#103,189
of 21,321,610 outputs
Outputs from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences
#14
of 2,654 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#2,955
of 297,554 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences
#3
of 50 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 21,321,610 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 2,654 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 12.3. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 297,554 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 99% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 50 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 94% of its contemporaries.